A GOOD JOBS NUMBER - STRONG INDICATOR INTEREST RATES WILL RISE

The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000. Job growth averaged 195,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In November, job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +163,000 to +175,000, and the change for October was revised from +204,000 to +200,000. 

What is the impact of a very good employment report overall; the reaction sent the stock market higher, the initial reaction in the bond market sent the 10 yr note to 2.93% for a brief moment before retreating to about unchanged on the day.  Most every key economic release in the last few weeks has been better than forecasts, the rate markets this week have moved higher in anticipation the Fed will begin tapering; Don’t expect any major improvement in the rate markets, the bond and mortgage markets are still bearish and over time rates will continue to increase. 

Mortgage Rates Fell Today

Mortgage rates fell today, erasing yesterday's weakness in many cases.  There were no significant events in the morning, but bond markets had already improved overnight in Asia and Europe.  The improvements held throughout the US trading day, allowing lenders to offer improved rate sheets compared to yesterday.  This keeps the most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for ideal scenarios (best-execution) at  4.375% whereas it had been in transit to 4.5% yesterday.

To make matters slightly more optimistic, Janet Yellen--the nominee to replace Bernanke as the head of the Federal Reserve--will have her confirmation hearing tomorrow in front of the Senate Banking Committee.  Her prepared remarks were released late this afternoon  and led to further strength in bond markets.  It was late enough in the day that most lenders didn't adjust rates sheets, though the gains seen in Mortgage-Backed-Securities would have justified it, had they happened earlier in the day.  All other things being equal, this means tomorrow would start out with a bit of an advantage for mortgage rates.  Even if rates simply hold steady, it would go a long way toward rejecting the trend higher that's been in force for the past two weeks.

Housing market still showing a bright side

Housing market still showing a bright side

According to recent reports published by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the economy is slowing heading into the fourth quarter of the year, which raises concerns about the housing recovery. The federal government shutdown, debt ceiling issues and economic uncertainty are targeted as factors that are weighing on consumer confidence. Despite the issues with the broader economy, both reports expect the housing market recovery to continue chugging along.

“On the bright side, these fiscal policy issues appear to have had only minimal effect on the housing market to date, which continues to improve overall,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Notably, the rapid appreciation of home prices during the past year has contributed significantly to household net worth gains. Also, the Fed’s continuation of securities purchases will likely keep mortgage rates low, enabling more homeowners to take advantage of refinance opportunities.”

Weekly Mortgage Interest Rate Report  —  November 7, 2013

Tom Drasler Home Mortgage Consultant - NMLS #297791 Direct (714) 478-3153 Send me an email     |   Visit my website HomeQuest Mortgage Corporation 25283 Cabot Road, Suite 108 - Laguna Hills, CA 92653

Data Provided by Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey®  Week ending on 11/07/2013 Interest Rate Fees & Points Margin  30 Year Fixed Rate 4.16 % 0.8 N/A  15 Year Fixed Rate 3.27 % 0.7 N/A  5/1-Year Adjustable Rate 2.96 % 0.5 2.75  1 Year Adjustable Rate 2.61 % 0.5 2.77 For up-to-the-minute local mortgage interest rate information, contact:  Tom Drasler at Direct (714) 478-3153  Week ending on 10/31/2013 Interest Rate Fees & Points Margin  30 Year Fixed Rate 4.10 % 0.7 N/A  15 Year Fixed Rate 3.20 % 0.7 N/A  5/1-Year Adjustable Rate 2.96 % 0.4 2.76  1 Year Adjustable Rate 2.64 % 0.4 2.76 This is not intended as an advertisement of interest rates as defined by Regulation Z, Section 226.24. Data is provided by Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) and is provided for informational purposes only. The financial and other information contained herein speaks only as of the date posted herein. Freddie Mac, and/or the sender of this information, is not responsible for business decisions made based on the reported results of the PMMS. In general, the data presented were calculated from information collected Monday through Wednesday of the same week that the PMMS is released and may not reflect mortgage rates, fees or points currently available. Average fees and points are provided to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey. Fixed rates up slightly as a result of positive economic data "Fixed mortgage rates rebounded slightly this week on more positive economic data releases. Production in the manufacturing industry expanded for the fifth month in a row in October to the strongest pace since April 2011. Similarly, the non-manufacturing sector grew for the second consecutive month in October and beat the market consensus forecast of a decline. These increases were widespread across the nation, from Chicago to Milwaukee to New York." – Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rates Drop Quickly After Jobs Data

Mortgage Rates Drop Quickly After Jobs Data

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Oct 22 2013, 

Mortgage rates fell abruptly today, after the long-awaited Employment Situation Report painted a bleaker-than-expected picture for labor markets.  The report was originally scheduled for October 4th, but was delayed due to the shutdown.  Conforming 30yr Fixed rates (best-execution) moved down to 4.125% for many borrowers depending on the scenario, though some lenders remain at 4.25%.  
To say that financial markets had been eagerly anticipating the release of this data is an understatement.  Apart from a brief spat of volatility leading into and away from the debt ceiling deal, the absence of this jobs report has been the driving force for rates markets--acting to prevent any convicted movement in either direction.
As those barriers were lowered today, and as the report spoke to ongoing labor market weakness, bond markets improved significantly, including MBS, the "mortgage-backed-securities" that most directly influence rate sheets.  When MBS prices improve, rates fall--all things being equal.
Weak economic data historically pushes rates lower and today is no exception, but that's not the whole story.  The ancillary effect of today's data is that it further confirms that the Fed is likely to hold off on reducing its purchases of MBS and Treasuries.  These purchases have helped to keep rates lower than they otherwise would be, and the threat of those purchases decreasing dealt a serious blow to rates markets in the summer months. 

Fannie Mae Changes Coming in November – Conforming Loan Update

This past Spring, a number of FHA guideline changes and increased costs went into effect that has made FHA  less attractive to buyers and has pushed them to higher 5% minimum down conforming options from Fannie and Freddie. For your convenience and quick review I have summarized these changes below. In addition, coming this November are additional changes, but this time, Fannie Mae is doing the tightening.

Many borrowers are now considering non-agency portfolio residential mortgage options instead of traditional Fannie Freddie products. Since your typical retail bank has limited mortgage offerings, borrowers are seeking out alternatives.  HomeQuest Mortgage Corporation, offers several portfolio and non-agency lending options for homebuyers, such as 10% down Jumbo loans to $750,000 with NO Mortgage Insurance required. And the best part, borrowers don’t have to work an impersonal bureaucratic bank. Borrowers can work with an experienced professional who provides personalized service, a broad choice of mortgage lending solutions and a support team with over 60 years combined experience to provide a stress free residential financing experience. Call Tom Drasler today at 714-478-3153 to learn more and experience the difference!

On November 16, Fannie Mae will implement scheduled changes to its automated underwriting system (DU or "Desktop Underwriter").  DU is used by lenders to approve loans, and several of the changes will make it harder for some borrowers to qualify.  These include tougher debt calculations for Adjustable rate loans; a complete removal of interest-only options; a maximum loan term of 30yrs (instead of 40), and stricter requirements for down payments, increasing the minimum amount from 3% to 5% of the loan balance.

FHA (buyers' primary low down payment financing option) raised its monthly and upfront fees this spring, and also made borrowers' monthly mortgage insurance premium (MIP) effective for the life of most loans.  This vastly increased lifetime costs for FHA borrowers. 

After those changes, the upfront MIP added to an FHA borrowers' loan on a $200,000 purchase is now $3,377.50 compared to no upfront cost for conventional loans.  As a result, FHA loans have become far less desirable for borrowers who qualify for other options.  

With costs rising so much for FHA financing, the 3% down Fannie Mae loan program has been a popular alternative.  A 700 score buyer currently pays $202.08 monthly for mortgage insurance (PMI), on a $200,000 purchase versus $201.04 monthly MIP on an FHA loan.  The cost of PMI varies with credit scores for conforming loans (unlike FHA).  Another important difference is that the PMI cost is removed when buyers reach 22% equity, a significant advantage over FHA loans.   

Effective with loans submitted to DU after 11/16, buyers will need 5% minimum down payment versus the current 3%. While increased down payments could deter some buyers, there are still significant Fannie Mae advantages over FHA:  they have no upfront mortgage insurance costs, and 5% down Fannie loans also have lower PMI costs than either FHA or current 3% down loans  ($136.17 monthly for a $200,000 purchase buyer with 700 scores).  Buyers can also utilize gifts from family members for their entire down payment on Fannie Mae loans (as with FHA).   

While specific lenders have varying guidelines (some require buyers provide their own down payments), for borrowers meeting Fannie Mae's guidelines, 5% down loans continue to be enjoy substantial advantages over FHA loans.  Buyers wanting to utilize Fannie's 97% program will need to be under contract by early November so their lenders can run the current version of DU prior to the update on Nov 16.

Weekly Mortgage Interest Report

Weekly Mortgage Interest Rate Report  —  October 11, 2013

Tom Drasler Home Mortgage Consultant - NMLS #297791 Direct (714) 478-3153 Send me an email     |   Visit my website HomeQuest Mortgage Corporation 25283 Cabot Road, Suite 108 - Laguna Hills, CA 92653

Data Provided by Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey®  Week ending on 10/10/2013 Interest Rate Fees & Points Margin  30 Year Fixed Rate 4.23 % 0.7 N/A  15 Year Fixed Rate 3.31 % 0.7 N/A  5/1-Year Adjustable Rate 3.05 % 0.4 2.74  1 Year Adjustable Rate 2.64 % 0.4 2.77 For up-to-the-minute local mortgage interest rate information, contact:  Tom Drasler at Direct (714) 478-3153  Week ending on 10/3/2013 Interest Rate Fees & Points Margin  30 Year Fixed Rate 4.22 % 0.7 N/A  15 Year Fixed Rate 3.29 % 0.7 N/A  5/1-Year Adjustable Rate 3.03 % 0.6 2.74  1 Year Adjustable Rate 2.63 % 0.4 2.77 This is not intended as an advertisement of interest rates as defined by Regulation Z, Section 226.24. Data is provided by Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) and is provided for informational purposes only. The financial and other information contained herein speaks only as of the date posted herein. Freddie Mac, and/or the sender of this information, is not responsible for business decisions made based on the reported results of the PMMS. In general, the data presented were calculated from information collected Monday through Wednesday of the same week that the PMMS is released and may not reflect mortgage rates, fees or points currently available. Average fees and points are provided to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey. Rates stay about the same "Mortgage rates were little changed amid the federal debt impasse in Washington, D.C. and a light week of economic data releases. Of the few releases, the private sector added an estimated 166,000 jobs in September, which were fewer than the market consensus and followed a downward revision of 17,000 workers in August, according to the ADP Research Institute. The Institute for Supply Management reported a greater slowing in growth in the nonmanufacturing industry in September than the market consensus forecast." – Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Restrictions may apply. Information and/or data is subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Not all loans or products are available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Restrictions may apply. Information and/or data is subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Not all loans or products are available in all states. HomeQuest Mortgage Corporation is licensed with the California department of real estate, broker license number 0122091.

Why Have Mortgage Interest Rates Been Declining Recently?

Focus is on Congress
The lack of progress in Congress on reaching an agreement on the budget and the debt ceiling was the focus for investors this week. The resulting uncertainty caused investors to shift to safer assets, which helped mortgage rates end the week lower.
After a week filled with market moving comments from Congressional leaders, the Republicans and the Democrats still appear to be far apart on bills for next year's budget and for raising the debt ceiling. If no deal is reached, some government functions may soon lose their funding. It is difficult to predict the degree to which this would impact the economy, but it likely would slow growth. Investors reacted to the uncertainty by selling riskier assets such as stocks and purchasing relatively safer assets including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Since mortgage rates are mostly determined by MBS prices, rates improved.
Overshadowed by the impasse in Washington, the housing data released this week continued to show solid results. August New Home Sales rose 8% from July and were 13% higher than one year ago. August Pending Home Sales declined a little from July, but they were still 6% higher than one year ago. The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index was 12.4% higher than one year ago, which was the largest increase since February 2006. 

Should you get the biggest loan you can before rates rise further?

Borrowing to the Max for a Home

Q. I am planning on buying a condominium and I can afford to pay as much as half of it with cash. But with mortgage rates going up nearly every week, should I get the largest loan that I can qualify for now? I know I won't be able to borrow at these relatively low rates much longer.

A. There are two schools of thought on borrowing.

One says that you should use as much "OPM"—other people's money—as you can in a purchase, since it frees up your own cash for other investments.

This camp especially encourages you to leverage your primary residence, since you get a tax deduction for mortgage interest paid. But your savings over time will depend on your income level and whether or not you itemize.

I think this strategy of taking out a bigger loan only makes sense if you have enough financial discipline to save the cash you'd otherwise spend on housing, and can find alternative investments that reliably give you better returns than you'd spend on mortgage interest, factoring in the tax break.

Most people don't have this sort of discipline and good luck with their investments.

So I agree with San Ramon, Calif., certified financial planner Kirk Dobson, who says that the advice he gives all of his clients is to "live below their means and keep untouchable cash reserves."

These reserves should be enough to cover at least six months of living expenses, plus a few thousand extra to cover the unexpected curveballs that life throws at everyone, like the news that your air conditioner is failing or your daughter needs braces.

Mr. Dobson says that you should look for a loan that you can afford comfortably after you've socked away these reserves—not the maximum loan that you get.

Reversal in California's Sales; Prices Slip

Huge Reversal in California's Sales; Prices Slip

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Sep 16 2013, 8:36AM

Between a slight decrease this month and a massive negative revision to the previous month, the California real estate market turned on a dime according to San Diego based DataQuick's release of August sales figures and revised numbers for July.  The firm reported that sales were down 1.9 percent in August to 42,546 units from revised sales of 43,381 in July.

The July revision is significant.  When data was originally released last month those sales had been reported at 48,118 units, 7,091 units more than in June, a phenomenal one month gain of 17.3 percent.  The revised increase of 2,354 units, while still a healthy bounce of 5.7 percent is no longer in the realm of stratospheric.
August sales figures were 3.1 percent higher than sales in August 2012 (41,280) and were the highest for any August since 2006 when 51,054 homes were sold.  DataQuick said since it began keeping records in 1988 sales in August have averaged 47,849 units; August 2013 sales estimates were 11.1 percent below that average.
The median price paid for a home in California last month was $361,000, down 0.6 percent from $363,000 in July and up 28.5 percent from $281,000 in August 2012.  While August was the 18^th month in which the median sale price rose on an annual basis, the amount of that increase eased slightly from the 29.2 percent growth rate from July 2012 to July 2013.  The peak median price in California was reached in the spring of 2007 at $484,000 and the he post-peak trough was $221,000 in April 2009.
Of the existing homes sold last month, 7.8 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year and 13.2 percent were short sales.  Foreclosure sales had an 8.3 share in July and a 20.0 percent share in August 2012 and had peaked at 58.8 percent of sales in February 2009.  Short sales were down from a 14.4 percent in July and 26.4 percent a year earlier.
DataQuick said that indicators of market distress continue to decline. Foreclosure activity remains well below year-ago and peak levels reached several years ago. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, while down payment sizes are stable.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09162013_california_real_estate.asp

Top 5 Mortgage Scams to Avoid - ABC News

Top 5 Mortgage Scams to Avoid - ABC News

Taper Talk Hurts Mortgage Rates

Taper Talk Hurts Mortgage Rates
This week, a broader consensus formed that the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchase program in September or October, and investors reacted by selling US stocks and bonds. The US economic data released this week provided little reason for the Fed to wait, and the European data showed unexpected strength. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.
The Fed's massive bond purchase program powered stocks to record highs and helped push mortgage rates to historic lows. The Fed has indicated that it is almost time to begin to scale back the program, and the only reason to wait would be unexpected weakness in economic growth. This week's labor market and Retail Sales data was stronger than expected, though, causing more investors to anticipate that the Fed will taper in the next month or two. Both stocks and bonds were negatively affected by the growing expectations.
Mortgage rates received additional upward pressure from the economic news out of Europe. After eighteen months in a recession, second quarter GDP in the euro zone increased modestly, exceeding the consensus. In particular, Germany and France performed well. The recovery in Europe caused global interest rates to rise this week, including US mortgage rates. 

Obama Administration Overstated Statistics From a year-long mortgage-fraud initiative

President Barack Obama’s administration significantly overstated statistics from a year-long mortgage-fraud initiative, including total number of victims, their losses suffered and number of individuals criminally charged, according to an FBI memo.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, in the document sent today, asked members of the administration’s Mortgage Fraud Working Group to correct and update any public materials related to the results released in October of a year-long law enforcement initiative targeting fraud schemes aimed at vulnerable homeowners.

The FBI restated the number of people criminally charged to 107 from 530. Agencies were asked to correct victims’ total losses to $95 million from an estimated $1 billion, and the number of victims found to 17,185 from more than 73,000.

“This targeted approach resulted in the successful filing of many criminal and civil cases around the country, but regrettably, the statistics reported in October included cases that fell outside the specific parameters of the initiative,” the FBI, which co-chairs the mortgage group, said in the memo.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-09/obama-mortgage-fraud-group-forced-to-correct-initiative-data

ARE YOUR PROPERTY TAXES TOO HIGH? IT'S TIME TO APPEAL!

PROPERTY TAX ASSESSMENTS – TIME TO APPEAL
If you believe your Property Taxes are too high (and who doesn't) and are so high you would like to officially appeal them, the time is now. The right to appeal this year’s assessment starts July 2nd for all Counties. Deadline dates are September 15th for some Counties and November 30th for others. Obviously, you will need sales figures on recent comparable sales. Assessors also advertise that this information is available on their websites. Homeowners, if you know a honest, capable and helpful Sales Agent, call them to help. If you don’t have one, find one. Real Estate Agents, this is an area where you can prove to be really helpful to homeowners. Start promoting and helping.
What is the cost? Free. Who can apply? Any property owner.

Is the Real Estate Recovery Over Now That Mortgage Interest Rates Have Jumped 1% Across the Board?

Mortgage rates, which at the beginning of May stood at 3.59% for the average 30-year fixed-rate loan, jumped to 4.68% during the first two weeks of July, the latest available data, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That is the highest level in two years.The U.S. housing recovery that began unfolding early last year faces its first serious test: In the span of just two months, mortgage rates have jumped by a full percentage point, something that has happened only twice since 1994.

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Bloomberg News

A 'sold' sign outside a home in LaSalle, Ill., last month. Economists say that even at a 4.5% or 5% mortgage rate, housing is still affordable by historical standards.

Economists say that even at a 4.5% or 5% mortgage rate, housing is still affordable by historical standards—and that rates could rise to 6% or prices could rise an additional 20% before housing would become unaffordable relative to historical levels.

The spike nevertheless represents a big payment shock for would-be buyers. Many shop for a home based on their monthly mortgage payment. The monthly payment of principal and interest—and not including taxes and insurance—on a $200,000 home with a 10% down payment just went up by more than $100, to $925, while the monthly cost of a $450,000 home just went up by around $250, to $2,095.

Does this mean the housing recovery is over? No, especially if rates rise because the economy is improving. "Prices will still go up, but it will be much more difficult to raise prices, which is a good thing because the momentum was heading for a bubble," said John Burns, chief executive of a home-builder consulting firm in Irvine.

For now, industry executives say the biggest problem facing buyers is the shortage of homes available for sale. "I don't think rates are going to be an issue in the near term," said Richard Smith, chief executive of Realogy Corp., which owns the Coldwell Banker and Century 21 real-estate brands. "You're going to continue to see tight inventory. Pricing is going to continue to go up."

Data tracked by housing analyst Ivy Zelman show that the ratio of homes for sale as a share of total U.S. households was at its lowest level in more than 27 years during the first quarter, at around 1.5%. Over that span, prices have increased whenever that ratio has fallen below the median of 2%.

But there are other reasons that suggest rising rates could matter more than they have in the past. Lenders have been slow to ease credit standards that tightened up sharply five years ago. Many would-be buyers still carry high debt loads relative to incomes that aren't growing much.

While mortgage rates on traditional loans are at a two-year high, the cost of mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, which allow buyers to make down payments of just 3.5%, are even more expensive because the agency has boosted insurance fees.

Home Prices Still Rise After Existing Homes Sales Slow in June

NAR told us yesterday that June's Existing Home Sales slipped (no inventory and lack of first time home buyers!), but that prices continue to move higher. Existing-home sales unexpectedly fell 1.2%, but still had the second-highest level of sales since November 2009, and are 15.2% higher from a year ago. The national median existing-home price was $214,200 in June, up 13.5% from June 2012, making for 16 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases.  The median time on market for all homes was 37 days in June, down from 41 days in May, and is 47 percent faster than the 70 days on market in June 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 68 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 39 days and non-distressed homes took 35 days. Forty-seven percent of all homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month.

What Will Rising Mortgage Rates do to Home Sales?

Home prices moved up at a torrid pace during the first half of the year, but don’t expect them to keep pace during the second half.

The big spike in mortgage rates over the past two months has reset the housing market and figures to take a bite out of demand at a time when more sellers have listed homes for sale and when price gains have tested investors’ purchasing appetites.

Mortgage rates, which stood at a low of 3.59% at the beginning of May, jumped to 4.58% during the last week of June, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates rose even more last Friday, after a strong jobs report firmed up investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin to curtail its bond-buying program later this year.

A rule of thumb holds that every one percentage point increase in interest rates reduces affordability by 10%, so the recent move in rates just made homes about 10% more expensive to buyers who need to finance their purchase.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/07/08/why-home-price-gains-will-slow-amid-higher-mortgage-rates/?blog_id=36&post_id=21932&mod=wsj_valettop_email

OC Home Prices Jump 21.3% and LA 19.8% in May

Orange County home prices jumped 21.3% in the year ending in May, the biggest percentage gain in 8½ years.

That's more than the gain for Los Angeles County, which led the nation's most populous metro areas in home price appreciation. Prices in L.A. increased 19.8% in the year ending in May, Core-Logic reported, followed by 18.3% t in Phoenix and 18 percent in the Inland Empire. Home prices in the U.S. surged 12.2% t in May compared to a year ago, the largest increase in seven years.

Orange County's increase was the biggest since December 2004, Core-Logic figures show. The increase likely reflects deals signed in March and April when the number of homes for sale remained at the lowest level in at least nine years, driving up prices. "Home prices continue to respond positively to the reductions in home inventory thus far," Core-Logic chief economist Mark Fleming said.

Nationwide, prices increased 12.2%, the most in seven years. California prices increased 20.2%, second only to Nevada's 26% gain.

Core-Logic's index tracks changes in closed-sale prices for the same single-family home over time.

It is the third home-price index to report price gains for Orange County. Data-Quick Information Systems reported earlier the median home price (the price at the midpoint of all sales) increased 24.1% in the year ending in May; the California Association of Realtors pegged Orange County's median price gain at 21.8%.

Market observers expect prices to start leveling off as more homeowners list their properties for sale. Orange County listings have increased 39% since mid-March. Even after those gains, the number of homes for sale remains below average.

The market continues to grow and now is the time to market for new business. If you’re looking for new listings, I have an exclusive FARM product that can pinpoint potential sellers. Let’s meet and I will share with you how it works…Thank you and have a great 4^th of July.