Taper Talk Hurts Mortgage Rates

Taper Talk Hurts Mortgage Rates
This week, a broader consensus formed that the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchase program in September or October, and investors reacted by selling US stocks and bonds. The US economic data released this week provided little reason for the Fed to wait, and the European data showed unexpected strength. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.
The Fed's massive bond purchase program powered stocks to record highs and helped push mortgage rates to historic lows. The Fed has indicated that it is almost time to begin to scale back the program, and the only reason to wait would be unexpected weakness in economic growth. This week's labor market and Retail Sales data was stronger than expected, though, causing more investors to anticipate that the Fed will taper in the next month or two. Both stocks and bonds were negatively affected by the growing expectations.
Mortgage rates received additional upward pressure from the economic news out of Europe. After eighteen months in a recession, second quarter GDP in the euro zone increased modestly, exceeding the consensus. In particular, Germany and France performed well. The recovery in Europe caused global interest rates to rise this week, including US mortgage rates. 

Obama Administration Overstated Statistics From a year-long mortgage-fraud initiative

President Barack Obama’s administration significantly overstated statistics from a year-long mortgage-fraud initiative, including total number of victims, their losses suffered and number of individuals criminally charged, according to an FBI memo.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, in the document sent today, asked members of the administration’s Mortgage Fraud Working Group to correct and update any public materials related to the results released in October of a year-long law enforcement initiative targeting fraud schemes aimed at vulnerable homeowners.

The FBI restated the number of people criminally charged to 107 from 530. Agencies were asked to correct victims’ total losses to $95 million from an estimated $1 billion, and the number of victims found to 17,185 from more than 73,000.

“This targeted approach resulted in the successful filing of many criminal and civil cases around the country, but regrettably, the statistics reported in October included cases that fell outside the specific parameters of the initiative,” the FBI, which co-chairs the mortgage group, said in the memo.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-09/obama-mortgage-fraud-group-forced-to-correct-initiative-data

ARE YOUR PROPERTY TAXES TOO HIGH? IT'S TIME TO APPEAL!

PROPERTY TAX ASSESSMENTS – TIME TO APPEAL
If you believe your Property Taxes are too high (and who doesn't) and are so high you would like to officially appeal them, the time is now. The right to appeal this year’s assessment starts July 2nd for all Counties. Deadline dates are September 15th for some Counties and November 30th for others. Obviously, you will need sales figures on recent comparable sales. Assessors also advertise that this information is available on their websites. Homeowners, if you know a honest, capable and helpful Sales Agent, call them to help. If you don’t have one, find one. Real Estate Agents, this is an area where you can prove to be really helpful to homeowners. Start promoting and helping.
What is the cost? Free. Who can apply? Any property owner.

Is the Real Estate Recovery Over Now That Mortgage Interest Rates Have Jumped 1% Across the Board?

Mortgage rates, which at the beginning of May stood at 3.59% for the average 30-year fixed-rate loan, jumped to 4.68% during the first two weeks of July, the latest available data, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That is the highest level in two years.The U.S. housing recovery that began unfolding early last year faces its first serious test: In the span of just two months, mortgage rates have jumped by a full percentage point, something that has happened only twice since 1994.

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Bloomberg News

A 'sold' sign outside a home in LaSalle, Ill., last month. Economists say that even at a 4.5% or 5% mortgage rate, housing is still affordable by historical standards.

Economists say that even at a 4.5% or 5% mortgage rate, housing is still affordable by historical standards—and that rates could rise to 6% or prices could rise an additional 20% before housing would become unaffordable relative to historical levels.

The spike nevertheless represents a big payment shock for would-be buyers. Many shop for a home based on their monthly mortgage payment. The monthly payment of principal and interest—and not including taxes and insurance—on a $200,000 home with a 10% down payment just went up by more than $100, to $925, while the monthly cost of a $450,000 home just went up by around $250, to $2,095.

Does this mean the housing recovery is over? No, especially if rates rise because the economy is improving. "Prices will still go up, but it will be much more difficult to raise prices, which is a good thing because the momentum was heading for a bubble," said John Burns, chief executive of a home-builder consulting firm in Irvine.

For now, industry executives say the biggest problem facing buyers is the shortage of homes available for sale. "I don't think rates are going to be an issue in the near term," said Richard Smith, chief executive of Realogy Corp., which owns the Coldwell Banker and Century 21 real-estate brands. "You're going to continue to see tight inventory. Pricing is going to continue to go up."

Data tracked by housing analyst Ivy Zelman show that the ratio of homes for sale as a share of total U.S. households was at its lowest level in more than 27 years during the first quarter, at around 1.5%. Over that span, prices have increased whenever that ratio has fallen below the median of 2%.

But there are other reasons that suggest rising rates could matter more than they have in the past. Lenders have been slow to ease credit standards that tightened up sharply five years ago. Many would-be buyers still carry high debt loads relative to incomes that aren't growing much.

While mortgage rates on traditional loans are at a two-year high, the cost of mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, which allow buyers to make down payments of just 3.5%, are even more expensive because the agency has boosted insurance fees.

Home Prices Still Rise After Existing Homes Sales Slow in June

NAR told us yesterday that June's Existing Home Sales slipped (no inventory and lack of first time home buyers!), but that prices continue to move higher. Existing-home sales unexpectedly fell 1.2%, but still had the second-highest level of sales since November 2009, and are 15.2% higher from a year ago. The national median existing-home price was $214,200 in June, up 13.5% from June 2012, making for 16 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases.  The median time on market for all homes was 37 days in June, down from 41 days in May, and is 47 percent faster than the 70 days on market in June 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 68 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 39 days and non-distressed homes took 35 days. Forty-seven percent of all homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month.

What Will Rising Mortgage Rates do to Home Sales?

Home prices moved up at a torrid pace during the first half of the year, but don’t expect them to keep pace during the second half.

The big spike in mortgage rates over the past two months has reset the housing market and figures to take a bite out of demand at a time when more sellers have listed homes for sale and when price gains have tested investors’ purchasing appetites.

Mortgage rates, which stood at a low of 3.59% at the beginning of May, jumped to 4.58% during the last week of June, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates rose even more last Friday, after a strong jobs report firmed up investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin to curtail its bond-buying program later this year.

A rule of thumb holds that every one percentage point increase in interest rates reduces affordability by 10%, so the recent move in rates just made homes about 10% more expensive to buyers who need to finance their purchase.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/07/08/why-home-price-gains-will-slow-amid-higher-mortgage-rates/?blog_id=36&post_id=21932&mod=wsj_valettop_email

OC Home Prices Jump 21.3% and LA 19.8% in May

Orange County home prices jumped 21.3% in the year ending in May, the biggest percentage gain in 8½ years.

That's more than the gain for Los Angeles County, which led the nation's most populous metro areas in home price appreciation. Prices in L.A. increased 19.8% in the year ending in May, Core-Logic reported, followed by 18.3% t in Phoenix and 18 percent in the Inland Empire. Home prices in the U.S. surged 12.2% t in May compared to a year ago, the largest increase in seven years.

Orange County's increase was the biggest since December 2004, Core-Logic figures show. The increase likely reflects deals signed in March and April when the number of homes for sale remained at the lowest level in at least nine years, driving up prices. "Home prices continue to respond positively to the reductions in home inventory thus far," Core-Logic chief economist Mark Fleming said.

Nationwide, prices increased 12.2%, the most in seven years. California prices increased 20.2%, second only to Nevada's 26% gain.

Core-Logic's index tracks changes in closed-sale prices for the same single-family home over time.

It is the third home-price index to report price gains for Orange County. Data-Quick Information Systems reported earlier the median home price (the price at the midpoint of all sales) increased 24.1% in the year ending in May; the California Association of Realtors pegged Orange County's median price gain at 21.8%.

Market observers expect prices to start leveling off as more homeowners list their properties for sale. Orange County listings have increased 39% since mid-March. Even after those gains, the number of homes for sale remains below average.

The market continues to grow and now is the time to market for new business. If you’re looking for new listings, I have an exclusive FARM product that can pinpoint potential sellers. Let’s meet and I will share with you how it works…Thank you and have a great 4^th of July.