July 28, 2009, A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers, by Metro Area (July 2009 update).The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, posted their first month-to-month increase in nearly three years in May, but annual weakness continued.
In the 20-city index, no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the fourteenth straight month that has happened. Boston, Cleveland, Dallas and Denver were the only areas with annual declines under 10%. Every other metro area was in double digits.
However, 15 cities managed to avoid month-to-month declines, up from nine last month. Prices in Tampa and New York were flat, while just Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas posted monthly declines.
Las Vegas and Phoenix continued to posted the largest monthly and annual declines. Phoenix is down 55% from its peak in June 2006, while Las Vegas is off 53% from its highest level. On the positive side, Dallas and Denver have reported three consecutive months of positive returns.
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics notes that the nose-dive in home prices that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the intensifying credit crisis has begun to stabilize. “The plunge in prices reflected the freezing of credit and all-round panic, which generated a step decline in home sales. Activity is now recovering, and with inventory falling, prices are dropping much less quickly and could even rise a bit over the next few months.”
Wells Fargo’s John Silvia says the month-to-month pattern is more important than the steep annual declines. “Once again TV commentators that emphasize the year-over-year numbers being down 17% are welcome to have their sarcasm but they are missing the point as well as the turn,” he said. “Recession is over, economy is recovering — let’s look forward and stop the backward looking focus.”
But Shepherdson says that while the plunge has stopped, sustained increases in home prices aren’t likely in the cards. “We would not expect any gains to last, because prices are still high relative to incomes and rents, and also because the uptick in sales will, we think, prompt a new wave of supply,” he said. “But this is still very welcome news today.”
See the full S&P/Case-Shiller report.
Read full story: Home Prices Drop at Slower Pace
Below, see data from the 20 metro areas Case-Shiller tracks, sortable by name, level, and year-over-year change — just click the column headers to re-sort.
(About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.)
Home Prices, by Metro Area
Metro Area May 2009 Change from April Year-over-year change
Atlanta 105.69 0.3% -15.0%
Boston 148.77 1.6% -7.2%
Charlotte 119.8 0.9% -10.0%
Chicago 123.68 1.1% -17.5%
Cleveland 102.11 4.1% -6.2%
Dallas 116.54 1.9% -4.1%
Denver 123.78 1.3% -4.6%
Detroit 70.05 0.2% -24.5%
Las Vegas 109.49 -2.6% -32.0%
Los Angeles 159.18 -0.1% -19.8%
Miami 144.59 -0.8% -25.2%
Minneapolis 109.77 1.2% -21.7%
New York 170.51 0.0% -12.2%
Phoenix 103.56 -0.9% -34.2%
Portland 146.97 0.1% -16.3%
San Diego 145.06 0.4% -18.5%
San Francisco 120.16 1.4% -26.1%
Seattle 148.96 -0.3% -16.6%
Tampa 140.35 0.0% -20.8%
Washington 169.49 1.3% -14.9%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData
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