While economists and so called real estate market experts continue to struggle with where the residential real estate market is headed, with concerns of continued declining values, pending shadow inventory of bank foreclosures, and dismal unemployment figures, there are some bright spots for home buyers. When I visit real estate offices, their sales in process boards are full. The good news is Housing Affordability is RISING, and many move-up and first time buyers will be coming to the table.
An interesting thing happened last week. For the first time since April, the interest rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage increased two weeks in a row. It didn t increase much (.05%) but it was news because it had been so long since rates have ticked up. It will be interesting to see what the Fed reports today. We are not announcing that rates are headed higher. It is way too early to make that argument. However, the increase did make us look at what the bargain rates are today.
Home values have fallen to October 2003 levels as measured by the Case Shiller 20 City Index. You can buy a home today for the same PRICE you would have prior to the housing bubble. That s amazing!
The more amazing part is that it would COST you much less. You can purchase a home with a mortgage at a much lower rate than you would have in 2003. Research has found that the mortgage rate at that time was 5.95%. Today rates are at 4.5%. When we calculated what that would mean to a buyer s monthly mortgage payment.
How much would you save?
Let s assume for the sake of this example that you purchased a home and borrowed $200,000 via a mortgage. In 2003, your monthly mortgage payment (principle and interest) would have been $1,192.68. If you borrowed the same $200,000 today your monthly payment would be $1,013.37. Same house, same price but the COST is $179.31 less a month. That s a savings of over $2,000 a year! Over the life of a 30 year mortgage, you would save over $64,000.
Bottom Line, if you are considering the purchase of a home but believe that waiting is the prudent thing to do because prices may continue to soften, make sure you keep an eye on interest rates.
We have a tendency to look at just the PRICE of the house instead of the COST. The cost is actually more important.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Saturday, September 18, 2010
10 Reasons Why Now is a Great Time to Buy a Home
Great article published in this week's Wall Street Journal. Clearly there is alot of gloom and doom sentiment to go around, but sometimes we have to see the glass as "half full".
Wall Street Journal - September 16th, 2010
Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.
Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare "Owning a home may no longer make economic sense," it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what "capitulation" looks like. Everyone has given up.
But it's not enough just to be contrarian. So here are 10 reasons why it's good to buy a home.
1. You can get a good deal. Especially if you play hardball. This is a buyer's market. Most of the other buyers have now vanished, as the tax credits on purchases have just expired. We're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. And prices have come down a long way– about 30% from their peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 big cities. Yes, it's mixed. New York is only down 20%. Arizona has halved. Will prices fall further? Sure, they could. You'll never catch the bottom. It doesn't really matter so much in the long haul.
Where is fair value? Fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who predicted the bust with remarkable accuracy, said two years ago that home prices needed to fall another 17% to reach fair value in relation to household incomes. Case-Shiller since then: Down 18%.
.2. Mortgages are cheap. You can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. What's not to like? These are the lowest rates on record. As recently as two years ago they were about 6.3%. That drop slashes your monthly repayment by a fifth. If inflation picks up, you won't see these mortgage rates again in your lifetime. And if we get deflation, and rates fall further, you can refi.
3. You'll save on taxes. You can deduct the mortgage interest from your income taxes. You can deduct your real estate taxes. And you'll get a tax break on capital gains–if any–when you sell. Sure, you'll need to do your math. You'll only get the income tax break if you itemize your deductions, and many people may be better off taking the standard deduction instead. The breaks are more valuable the more you earn, and the bigger your mortgage. But many people will find that these tax breaks mean owning costs them less, often a lot less, than renting.
.4. It'll be yours. You can have the kitchen and bathrooms you want. You can move the walls, build an extension–zoning permitted–or paint everything bright orange. Few landlords are so indulgent; for renters, these types of changes are often impossible. You'll feel better about your own place if you own it than if you rent. Many years ago, when I was working for a political campaign in England, I toured a working-class northern town. Mrs. Thatcher had just begun selling off public housing to the tenants. "You can tell the ones that have been bought," said my local guide. "They've painted the front door. It's the first thing people do when they buy." It was a small sign that said something big.
.5. You'll get a better home. In many parts of the country it can be really hard to find a good rental. All the best places are sold as condos. Money talks. Once again, this is a case by case issue: In Miami right now there are so many vacant luxury condos that owners will rent them out for a fraction of the cost of owning. But few places are so favored. Generally speaking, if you want the best home in the best neighborhood, you're better off buying.
6. It offers some inflation protection. No, it's not perfect. But studies by Professor Karl "Chip" Case (of Case-Shiller), and others, suggest that over the long-term housing has tended to beat inflation by a couple of percentage points a year. That's valuable inflation insurance, especially if you're young and raising a family and thinking about the next 30 or 40 years. In the recent past, inflation-protected government bonds, or TIPS, offered an easier form of inflation insurance. But yields there have plummeted of late. That also makes homeownership look a little better by contrast.
.7. It's risk capital. No, your home isn't the stock market and you shouldn't view it as the way to get rich. But if the economy does surprise us all and start booming, sooner or later real estate prices will head up again, too. One lesson from the last few years is that stocks are incredibly hard for most normal people to own in large quantities–for practical as well as psychological reasons. Equity in a home is another way of linking part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy–if it happens–and still managing to sleep at night.
8. It's forced savings. If you can rent an apartment for $2,000 month instead of buying one for $2,400 a month, renting may make sense. But will you save that $400 for your future? A lot of people won't. Most, I dare say. Once again, you have to do your math, but the part of your mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment isn't a cost. You're just paying yourself by building equity. As a forced monthly saving, it's a good discipline.
9. There is a lot to choose from. There is a glut of homes in most of the country. The National Association of Realtors puts the current inventory at around 4 million homes. That's below last year's peak, but well above typical levels, and enough for about a year's worth of sales. More keeping coming onto the market, too, as the banks slowly unload their inventory of unsold properties. That means great choice, as well as great prices.
10. Sooner or later, the market will clear. Demand and supply will meet. The population is forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes. Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out. Many of the homes will be bought. But many more will simply be destroyed–either deliberately, or by inaction. This is already happening. Even two years ago, when I toured the housing slump in western Florida, I saw bankrupt condo developments that were fast becoming derelict. And, finally, a lot of the "glut" simply won't matter: It's concentrated in a few areas, like Florida and Nevada. Unless you live there, the glut won't have any long-term impact on housing supply in your town.
Wall Street Journal - September 16th, 2010
Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.
Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare "Owning a home may no longer make economic sense," it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what "capitulation" looks like. Everyone has given up.
But it's not enough just to be contrarian. So here are 10 reasons why it's good to buy a home.
1. You can get a good deal. Especially if you play hardball. This is a buyer's market. Most of the other buyers have now vanished, as the tax credits on purchases have just expired. We're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. And prices have come down a long way– about 30% from their peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 big cities. Yes, it's mixed. New York is only down 20%. Arizona has halved. Will prices fall further? Sure, they could. You'll never catch the bottom. It doesn't really matter so much in the long haul.
Where is fair value? Fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who predicted the bust with remarkable accuracy, said two years ago that home prices needed to fall another 17% to reach fair value in relation to household incomes. Case-Shiller since then: Down 18%.
.2. Mortgages are cheap. You can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. What's not to like? These are the lowest rates on record. As recently as two years ago they were about 6.3%. That drop slashes your monthly repayment by a fifth. If inflation picks up, you won't see these mortgage rates again in your lifetime. And if we get deflation, and rates fall further, you can refi.
3. You'll save on taxes. You can deduct the mortgage interest from your income taxes. You can deduct your real estate taxes. And you'll get a tax break on capital gains–if any–when you sell. Sure, you'll need to do your math. You'll only get the income tax break if you itemize your deductions, and many people may be better off taking the standard deduction instead. The breaks are more valuable the more you earn, and the bigger your mortgage. But many people will find that these tax breaks mean owning costs them less, often a lot less, than renting.
.4. It'll be yours. You can have the kitchen and bathrooms you want. You can move the walls, build an extension–zoning permitted–or paint everything bright orange. Few landlords are so indulgent; for renters, these types of changes are often impossible. You'll feel better about your own place if you own it than if you rent. Many years ago, when I was working for a political campaign in England, I toured a working-class northern town. Mrs. Thatcher had just begun selling off public housing to the tenants. "You can tell the ones that have been bought," said my local guide. "They've painted the front door. It's the first thing people do when they buy." It was a small sign that said something big.
.5. You'll get a better home. In many parts of the country it can be really hard to find a good rental. All the best places are sold as condos. Money talks. Once again, this is a case by case issue: In Miami right now there are so many vacant luxury condos that owners will rent them out for a fraction of the cost of owning. But few places are so favored. Generally speaking, if you want the best home in the best neighborhood, you're better off buying.
6. It offers some inflation protection. No, it's not perfect. But studies by Professor Karl "Chip" Case (of Case-Shiller), and others, suggest that over the long-term housing has tended to beat inflation by a couple of percentage points a year. That's valuable inflation insurance, especially if you're young and raising a family and thinking about the next 30 or 40 years. In the recent past, inflation-protected government bonds, or TIPS, offered an easier form of inflation insurance. But yields there have plummeted of late. That also makes homeownership look a little better by contrast.
.7. It's risk capital. No, your home isn't the stock market and you shouldn't view it as the way to get rich. But if the economy does surprise us all and start booming, sooner or later real estate prices will head up again, too. One lesson from the last few years is that stocks are incredibly hard for most normal people to own in large quantities–for practical as well as psychological reasons. Equity in a home is another way of linking part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy–if it happens–and still managing to sleep at night.
8. It's forced savings. If you can rent an apartment for $2,000 month instead of buying one for $2,400 a month, renting may make sense. But will you save that $400 for your future? A lot of people won't. Most, I dare say. Once again, you have to do your math, but the part of your mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment isn't a cost. You're just paying yourself by building equity. As a forced monthly saving, it's a good discipline.
9. There is a lot to choose from. There is a glut of homes in most of the country. The National Association of Realtors puts the current inventory at around 4 million homes. That's below last year's peak, but well above typical levels, and enough for about a year's worth of sales. More keeping coming onto the market, too, as the banks slowly unload their inventory of unsold properties. That means great choice, as well as great prices.
10. Sooner or later, the market will clear. Demand and supply will meet. The population is forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes. Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out. Many of the homes will be bought. But many more will simply be destroyed–either deliberately, or by inaction. This is already happening. Even two years ago, when I toured the housing slump in western Florida, I saw bankrupt condo developments that were fast becoming derelict. And, finally, a lot of the "glut" simply won't matter: It's concentrated in a few areas, like Florida and Nevada. Unless you live there, the glut won't have any long-term impact on housing supply in your town.
Survey Says: Why Over 70% of Americans Believe It's a Good Time to Buy
HOME PRICES: A large majority of Americans (78 percent) believe that home prices either will remain flat or go up over the next year, up five points from the beginning of the year. Forty-seven percent believe prices will hold steady, while 31 percent think they will go up. This is a notable shift from January 2010, when these numbers were 36 percent and 37 percent, respectively.
Thirty-nine percent think rental prices will increase over the next 12 months, while 46 percent said they will stay the same. Consumers continue to believe it is a buyers' market; 70 percent said it is a good time to buy a house, up six points from January. However, 83 percent believe it is a bad time to sell a house.
GOOD TIME TO BUY, BAD TIME TO SELL: 70% of Americans think it is a good time to buy a house, up from 64% in January 2010, and 36% think now is a very good time to buy a house. More than three-quarters of Mortgage borrowers and Underwater borrowers think it is a good time to buy. 83% of Americans think it is a bad time to sell a house. 91% of Delinquent borrowers think it is a bad time to sell a house, with 67% thinking it is a very bad time to do so...
MORTGAGE RATES: Americans expect home mortgage interest rates to go up rather than down over the next year by a ratio of 5 to 1.Among the sub-groups, the highest percentages expecting mortgage interest rates to rise over the next 12 months are among Mortgage borrowers and Underwater borrowers. Delinquent borrowers are more likely than other groups to think rates will remain the same or go down.
IS BUYING A HOME A SAFE INVESTMENT ?: Fewer Americans consider buying a home a safe investment than in January 2010 or 2003.Although 67% of Americans think buying a house is a safe investment, this is down 3 points from January 2010 and 16 points from 2003 – the largest declines among all tracked alternatives over both timeframes. The perception that buying a home being is a safe investment has decreased among all sub-groups since January 2010, especially among Delinquent borrowers, Renters, and Underwater borrowers (down by 8, 7, and 6 points, respectively). Mortgage Borrowers and Owners view purchasing a house as a safer investment than the General Population and the rest of the sub-groups
QUALIFICATION: Most Americans think it would be difficult to get a home loan today. However, this sentiment is waning: 42% of Americans think that it would be somewhat easy or very easy to get a home loan today up 7 points since January 2010. The vast majority of Delinquent borrowers continue to believe it would be difficult.
Thirty-nine percent think rental prices will increase over the next 12 months, while 46 percent said they will stay the same. Consumers continue to believe it is a buyers' market; 70 percent said it is a good time to buy a house, up six points from January. However, 83 percent believe it is a bad time to sell a house.
GOOD TIME TO BUY, BAD TIME TO SELL: 70% of Americans think it is a good time to buy a house, up from 64% in January 2010, and 36% think now is a very good time to buy a house. More than three-quarters of Mortgage borrowers and Underwater borrowers think it is a good time to buy. 83% of Americans think it is a bad time to sell a house. 91% of Delinquent borrowers think it is a bad time to sell a house, with 67% thinking it is a very bad time to do so...
MORTGAGE RATES: Americans expect home mortgage interest rates to go up rather than down over the next year by a ratio of 5 to 1.Among the sub-groups, the highest percentages expecting mortgage interest rates to rise over the next 12 months are among Mortgage borrowers and Underwater borrowers. Delinquent borrowers are more likely than other groups to think rates will remain the same or go down.
IS BUYING A HOME A SAFE INVESTMENT ?: Fewer Americans consider buying a home a safe investment than in January 2010 or 2003.Although 67% of Americans think buying a house is a safe investment, this is down 3 points from January 2010 and 16 points from 2003 – the largest declines among all tracked alternatives over both timeframes. The perception that buying a home being is a safe investment has decreased among all sub-groups since January 2010, especially among Delinquent borrowers, Renters, and Underwater borrowers (down by 8, 7, and 6 points, respectively). Mortgage Borrowers and Owners view purchasing a house as a safer investment than the General Population and the rest of the sub-groups
QUALIFICATION: Most Americans think it would be difficult to get a home loan today. However, this sentiment is waning: 42% of Americans think that it would be somewhat easy or very easy to get a home loan today up 7 points since January 2010. The vast majority of Delinquent borrowers continue to believe it would be difficult.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Dear Clients,
There was an interesting article featured in the Wall Street Journal, that illustrates a change in mindset taking place with consumers as it relates to managing debt. There is a growing number of consumers, mostly older and financially established, who are choosing to pay down or pay off their mortgages at a faster rate - even if it means a substantial jump in their monthly payments.
I personally witness this mindset shift more often, as many clients look at the numbers I work up and see how a shorter mortgage term and relatively modest payment increase can save thousands of dollars in interest, while eliminating several years of mortgage payments. In addition, mortgage debt reduction becomes an integral part of their overall retirement strategy. Today's historic low mortgage rates are adding fuel to the fire.
I encourage you or anyone you know to contact a licensed mortgage advisor, such as myself, who can access your situation and produce a comprehensive analysis to save mortgage interest and accellerate term payoff.
Call me today at 714-478-3153 or visit my website www.HomeQuestMortgageCorp.com to fill out a confidential application.
Wall Street Journal - August 29th, 2010
A growing number of homeowners are choosing to pay down their mortgages at a faster rate--even if it means a substantial jump in their monthly payments.
Between January and June, 26% of homeowners who refinanced chose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to data from CoreLogic, a provider of financial, property and consumer information. During all of 2009, 18.5% of borrowers who refinanced opted for a 15-year term.
What's prompting the shift to shorter loans?
Historically low interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages.
Homeowners are doing the math and realizing that rates have fallen enough so the increase in payment between a new 15-year mortgage and their current loan is no longer unbearable for their budgets, says Bob Walters, chief economist.
The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.86% for the week ending Aug. 26, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates.
A Change in Thinking
The financial situation of those capable of refinancing today is a factor in the shift, Mr. Walters says. These people typically are homeowners with the best credit and the most equity -- and, therefore, most suited for a shorter-term loan.
But there might be some other psychology at work. "We're seeing a different view on debt than maybe we've seen in the past," he says. Today, homeowners are saying, "I really want to pay this off. I'm going to bite the bullet and take the payment and work toward paying this down."
A 15-year mortgage also acts as somewhat of a forced savings account for homeowners, says Leif Thomsen, chief executive of Mortgage Master, a privately owned lender, given that the higher payments help a borrower pay down the principal at a quicker clip.
This is a huge shift in borrower thinking. "There was a drive a couple of years ago to take out the biggest mortgage that you could and use all of the money you would have otherwise had in the house and put it into stocks and bonds--to think of your house and mortgage as part of your entire investment portfolio," says Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist for Freddie Mac.
"That worked for people who do investment finance for a living and are good at managing accounts," she says. "But for the average person, debt is a drag on their psyche as well as their overall budget." Many Americans have reverted to the goal of paying off their house and getting rid of their mortgage, Ms. Cutts adds.
Doing the Math
Refinancing into a shorter-term mortgage isn't a strategy for everyone, however.
Choosing a shorter term usually means you'll get a better rate--and you'll pay much less interest over the life of the loan--but a shorter time frame ramps up monthly mortgage payments.
For example, with a 4.5% interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of $200,000, you would have a monthly payment of $1,015, including principal and interest, Ms. Cutts says. The monthly payment jumps to about $1,480 with a 4% interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate loan.
Of course, if the refinancing borrower's current 30-year loan has a higher rate, the difference between the monthly payments could be lower. Still, you should count on some increase in monthly payments.
In general, Mr. Walters says, those who choose 15-year fixed-rate mortgages are older and have more equity and less debt than other folks. They also earn higher incomes and don't have some of the added expenses that younger homeowners typically do.
"People who are taking these loans are financially stable and can afford the payments, but at the same time are planning on staying in their home for an extended period of time," Mr. Thomsen says.Mr. Walters says you shouldn't take on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage unless you have substantial savings, including at least a year's worth of living expenses in liquid accounts.Also, he recommends having a debt-to-income ratio below 35%. So if you have a gross salary of $5,700 per month, for instance, your monthly debt--including any mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, homeowners-association dues as well as auto and student loans and credit-card debt--would have to be a max of $1,995 to get a 35% ratio.
There was an interesting article featured in the Wall Street Journal, that illustrates a change in mindset taking place with consumers as it relates to managing debt. There is a growing number of consumers, mostly older and financially established, who are choosing to pay down or pay off their mortgages at a faster rate - even if it means a substantial jump in their monthly payments.
I personally witness this mindset shift more often, as many clients look at the numbers I work up and see how a shorter mortgage term and relatively modest payment increase can save thousands of dollars in interest, while eliminating several years of mortgage payments. In addition, mortgage debt reduction becomes an integral part of their overall retirement strategy. Today's historic low mortgage rates are adding fuel to the fire.
I encourage you or anyone you know to contact a licensed mortgage advisor, such as myself, who can access your situation and produce a comprehensive analysis to save mortgage interest and accellerate term payoff.
Call me today at 714-478-3153 or visit my website www.HomeQuestMortgageCorp.com to fill out a confidential application.
Wall Street Journal - August 29th, 2010
A growing number of homeowners are choosing to pay down their mortgages at a faster rate--even if it means a substantial jump in their monthly payments.
Between January and June, 26% of homeowners who refinanced chose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to data from CoreLogic, a provider of financial, property and consumer information. During all of 2009, 18.5% of borrowers who refinanced opted for a 15-year term.
What's prompting the shift to shorter loans?
Historically low interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages.
Homeowners are doing the math and realizing that rates have fallen enough so the increase in payment between a new 15-year mortgage and their current loan is no longer unbearable for their budgets, says Bob Walters, chief economist.
The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.86% for the week ending Aug. 26, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates.
A Change in Thinking
The financial situation of those capable of refinancing today is a factor in the shift, Mr. Walters says. These people typically are homeowners with the best credit and the most equity -- and, therefore, most suited for a shorter-term loan.
But there might be some other psychology at work. "We're seeing a different view on debt than maybe we've seen in the past," he says. Today, homeowners are saying, "I really want to pay this off. I'm going to bite the bullet and take the payment and work toward paying this down."
A 15-year mortgage also acts as somewhat of a forced savings account for homeowners, says Leif Thomsen, chief executive of Mortgage Master, a privately owned lender, given that the higher payments help a borrower pay down the principal at a quicker clip.
This is a huge shift in borrower thinking. "There was a drive a couple of years ago to take out the biggest mortgage that you could and use all of the money you would have otherwise had in the house and put it into stocks and bonds--to think of your house and mortgage as part of your entire investment portfolio," says Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist for Freddie Mac.
"That worked for people who do investment finance for a living and are good at managing accounts," she says. "But for the average person, debt is a drag on their psyche as well as their overall budget." Many Americans have reverted to the goal of paying off their house and getting rid of their mortgage, Ms. Cutts adds.
Doing the Math
Refinancing into a shorter-term mortgage isn't a strategy for everyone, however.
Choosing a shorter term usually means you'll get a better rate--and you'll pay much less interest over the life of the loan--but a shorter time frame ramps up monthly mortgage payments.
For example, with a 4.5% interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of $200,000, you would have a monthly payment of $1,015, including principal and interest, Ms. Cutts says. The monthly payment jumps to about $1,480 with a 4% interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate loan.
Of course, if the refinancing borrower's current 30-year loan has a higher rate, the difference between the monthly payments could be lower. Still, you should count on some increase in monthly payments.
In general, Mr. Walters says, those who choose 15-year fixed-rate mortgages are older and have more equity and less debt than other folks. They also earn higher incomes and don't have some of the added expenses that younger homeowners typically do.
"People who are taking these loans are financially stable and can afford the payments, but at the same time are planning on staying in their home for an extended period of time," Mr. Thomsen says.Mr. Walters says you shouldn't take on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage unless you have substantial savings, including at least a year's worth of living expenses in liquid accounts.Also, he recommends having a debt-to-income ratio below 35%. So if you have a gross salary of $5,700 per month, for instance, your monthly debt--including any mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, homeowners-association dues as well as auto and student loans and credit-card debt--would have to be a max of $1,995 to get a 35% ratio.
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