Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Latest Numbers on Health of Existing Home Sales

For news yesterday, Existing Home Sales rose to 4.89 million in May from an upward-revised 4.66 million in April, up 5% on a sequential basis but down 5% on an annual basis. Total inventory rose 2.2% to 2.28 million homes which represents a 5.6 month inventory (6 months is considered a "balanced" level). The median home price rose to 213,400 which is up 5.1% on an annual basis. Distressed sales were 11%, down from 18% a year ago. The first time homebuyer continues to be MIA, with only 27% of sales going to first-time buyers. All cash sales were 33%, and median time on market was 47 days. On a regional basis, the West continues to be soft, with sales only up 0.9% m-o-m and still down 11.4% y-o-y. This likely reflects the diminished inventory of distressed properties in the region and stretched affordability given the sharp gain in prices in much of the U.S.

Sluggish Housing Market A Product Of Millions Of 'Missing Households'

There are 2 million "missing households" in the US - which represents pent up demand for new residences in the US. These are Millennials who are living with their parents or rooming together in an apartment. That represents 2 years of housing starts at the current pace. Rents are increasing, jobs are tough to get, and student debt is high. Fun fact - we haven't been building this few homes since World War II, according to the NAHB.